![]() The third value in the PERT formula is the Most Likely estimate and is represented as “M.” Most Likely Estimate (M)Įstimate for both favorable and unfavorable conditions, with some risks occurring. The Pessimistic Estimate is the “worst-case” and thus longest duration, or highest cost, to complete the work. It is the opposite of the Optimistic estimate in concept. The “Pessimistic estimate” is used in the PERT formula and is represented as “P.” Pessimistic Estimate (P)Įstimate for all unfavorable conditions with all negative risks occurring and no mitigation of negative risks The Optimistic Estimate is the “best-case” and thus shortest duration, or lowest cost, to complete the work. The “Optimistic estimate” is one value within the PERT formula and is represented as “O.” Optimistic Estimate (O)Įstimate for all favorable conditions with no risks or changes ![]() ![]() When studying PERT as part of preparing to take the PMP® exam, it is important to know it is one type of three-point estimating, what it can be used to estimate (duration or cost), and when in the project to use it. PERT estimate formula is: (O + 4M +P) / 6.PERT combines probability theory and statistics to derive a formula for the average activity from the three-point estimates. ![]()
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